Metro Manila sinking at a fast pace

[KeithD]

Looks like flooding is only going to get worse in the future. If they don't start building sea defences and better drainage now, this will become a yearly event. The science is simple, but as usual politics complicate it :crazy:

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/philippines/metro-manila-sinking-at-a-fast-pace-1.1062932

[lastlid]

Looks like flooding is only going to get worse in the future. If they don't start building sea defences and better drainage now, this will become a yearly event. The scisnce is simple, but as usual politics complicate it :crazy:

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/philippines/metro-manila-sinking-at-a-fast-pace-1.1062932

WOW. Interesting. 10cms a year sounds a lot.

[CBM]

Thanks, Keith, for a very thought provoking article.

10cms a year is a huge figure - I've never seen one like it.

Whether Manila can organise itself to pay for sea walls and levees seems open to question. What is petty cash for Forbes Park is unimaginable wealth for Tondo or Quiapo.

[Terpe]

Staggering statistics :yikes:
Must say I was not aware of that.

I'm not even sure if anything can really be done now.

[KeithD]

A few other sinking cities .... I knew Mexico City was the worst on the planet http://travel.usnews.com/features/7_Cities_About_to_Sink/

[CBM]

Phew! Eight inches a year... still, considering that Mexico City is the only place where I have seen a pistol pulled out and put on the table during a negotiation, and the only place where I have seen Union reps with diamond cufflinks, not to mention the air quality and the need to bribe musicians in order to eat in peace, I shall not be sorry to see it go...

[tone]

Very useful to read though - thanks for posting it up.

[lastlid]

Yes. Definetly a gamechanger. A foot in 3 years.

[deeen]

If it were true... e.g. a few centimetres in 1 year, or 10 cm in 1 year, is not a metre in 4 years. There has been no significant global warming for 17 years. the sea is not rising at 1 cm per year. The floods were bad in Quezon City, as in the pic, but not in his list. However North Caloocan is in his list, but my friends there said after 1 bad day it was not too bad.

So what is his agenda? Does he need more money for his department? Maybe Manila is sinking slowly, like London and the South of England, but even if it is, this kind of alarmist rubbish just obscures the facts.

[lastlid]

If it were true... e.g. a few centimetres in 1 year, or 10 cm in 1 year, is not a metre in 4 years. There has been no significant global warming for 17 years. the sea is not rising at 1 cm per year. The floods were bad in Quezon City, as in the pic, but not in his list. However North Caloocan is in his list, but my friends there said after 1 bad day it was not too bad.

So what is his agenda? Does he need more money for his department? Maybe Manila is sinking slowly, like London and the South of England, but even if it is, this kind of alarmist rubbish just obscures the facts.

Manila is sinking, as opposed to sea level rising, at least thats what the article says. There is a difference though it might not seem like that. (Can have a similar effect of course). But Manila is also low laying so if it sinks at the rate quoted then snorkel and flippers will be the order of the day.

For me, if it were true, and their scientists would know as it is perfectly possible to measure, then their ought to be a vast change in direction in the city planning....if there was ever any city planning in the first place. I hope Mr Ayala is careful where he builds next....http://business.inquirer.net/76909/philippines-ayala-to-build-new-business-district


"The entire Metro Manila is sinking by several centimetres per year, estimated as one metre in four years, said Siringan, adding that in northern suburban Malabon, a fishing area compared to Venice, has been sinking by 10 centimetres a year."

Northern suburban Malabon has been sinking at 10 cm a year. However 1 meter in 4 years (3.281 feet to the metre) is some going. :cwm24:

Having said that, the Dutch are pretty good at living close to sea so a look over their shoulder might be an idea.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8362147.stm

Maybe it will be a case of water jeepneys in Manila in the future....or is Malabon like that already? Maybe the next Bourne movie will show a chase through the back streets of Malabon in gondolers...

[KeithD]

If it were true... e.g. a few centimetres in 1 year, or 10 cm in 1 year, is not a metre in 4 years. There has been no significant global warming for 17 years. the sea is not rising at 1 cm per year. The floods were bad in Quezon City, as in the pic, but not in his list. However North Caloocan is in his list, but my friends there said after 1 bad day it was not too bad.

So what is his agenda? Does he need more money for his department? Maybe Manila is sinking slowly, like London and the South of England, but even if it is, this kind of alarmist rubbish just obscures the facts.

You need to check facts first. Manila is in a BAY, hence the higher rate of seas level rise. Sea levels are different all over the world. Even in the UK you get massive differences between sea level heights depending on what part of the coast you are at. This is due to different coast lines, currents, gravity changes around the Earth (gets weaker the closer you get to the equator), the shape of the Earth (bulges at the equator), and the effect of the moon and other celestial objects. As an example these are the sea level rises around the US http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U._S._Sea_Level_Trends_1900-2003.gif

As for 'no significant global warming', I think 0.16 degree is a hell of a lot in the last decade and increasing (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-3-1-1.html)

[lastlid]

Houston Texas is low laying but they have it all organised over there. Remember the song "Jambalaya on the Bayou"? They have a system of interconnecting Bayous to deal with heavy rain.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4o86juvMEE

http://hcfcd.org/trailsnbayous.html

[lastlid]

Did you know that the Isle of Wight has 4 tides a day? Not a lot of people know that....

I think I was talking rowlocks about Mexico city. For some reason I thought it was at altitude. I seemed to recall Sir Bobby Moore coming a cropper there at altitude but that was Bogotoa? The Bogotoa Bracelet incident..

Just been re educating myself on Mexico..

http://travel.usnews.com/features/7_Cities_About_to_Sink/

Resting on a fickle lake bed in the Valley of Mexico, Mexico City has been facing the possibility of going under for centuries. However, according to geologists, there are parts of this massive metropolis that are sinking by as much as eight inches per year. Because of a lack of sufficient drainage, the city was heavily prone to flooding from groundwater flowing down from the surrounding mountains, leading to the construction of a vast underground drainage system. But over-extraction of groundwater from the Texcoco lake bed during the 20th century has caused the city's clay foundation to crumble, forcing the metropolis to sink deeper into the ground. And as the city sinks, so does the drainage system, forcing waste water to reverse its course and head back into the city. According to AZCentral.com, Mexico City's drainage capacity has decreased by 30 percent since 1975.

There are several projects underway to keep this sinking city afloat, including a 23-foot-wide ($1.1 billion) Eastern Drainage Tunnel that will deposit waste water about 40 miles north of the city. The tunnel should be completed by 2012. Work is also being done to help save the architectural gems -- like the popular Metropolitan Cathedral -- found in the Historic District, which are one of the city's major tourist draws. But despite best efforts, engineers say that there is no way to keep Mexico City from sinking.

[KeithD]

Did you know that the Isle of Wight has 4 tides a day? Not a lot of people know that......

Unless the IOW has it's own extra Moon that would be impossible ;)

Just the two:
http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/2012tides/cowes/cowes201208.htm
http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/2012tides/bembridge/bembridge201208.htm
http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/2012tides/ventnor/ventnor201208.htm

[lastlid]

Unless the IOW has it's own extra Moon that would be impossible ;)

Just the two:
http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/2012tides/cowes/cowes201208.htm
http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/2012tides/bembridge/bembridge201208.htm
http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/2012tides/ventnor/ventnor201208.htm

There is a special reason for the Isle of Wight syndrome. The waters coming in up the channels from the east and west up the solent etc. Gives the effect of four tides. If you see what I mean.

http://www.bristolnomads.org.uk/stuff/double_tides.htm

[lastlid]

Just been talking to the wife about Malabon. She has a cousin there . She says it is always flooding there, year on year. Seems to be a way of life....only problem is the waters are dirty, evidently.

But, she says, citizens of Malabon are beginning to develop webbed feet...:D

[lastlid]

.

[Mr Pickwick]

One metre in four years is horrific, the population in Manila have been badly let down by the politicians and very poor construction and planing...


Looks like flooding is only going to get worse in the future. If they don't start building sea defences and better drainage now, this will become a yearly event. The science is simple, but as usual politics complicate it :crazy:

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/philippines/metro-manila-sinking-at-a-fast-pace-1.1062932

[lastlid]

“Metro Manila can never be flood resistant,” Tolentino said, adding that no amount of massive infrastructure development and effort to minimize trash can ensure a flood-free metropolis because a number of areas are “below sea level.”

And...

"Malacañang is releasing P5 billion for flood control projects that have to be immediately undertaken in Metro Manila and nearby areas, Public Works and Highways Secretary Rogelio Singson said yesterday."


http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/metro-manila/08/17/12/metro-manila-sinking-says-expert

[stevewool]

so after reading this, do you think i should be looking for a ark rather then a house

[irishman12]

i have a friend from malabon and saw her fb photos -water was knee /waist deep in streets outside houses ,had to get relief supplies from dswd ,then clean up house after .

[lastlid]

so after reading this, do you think i should be looking for a ark rather then a house

Can you swim?

[lastlid]

i have a friend from malabon and saw her fb photos -water was knee /waist deep in streets outside houses ,had to get relief supplies from dswd ,then clean up house after .

Same for my wife's cousin. Same.

[KeithD]

Just buy a condo on the top floor, your feet will be dry for a few decades :)

[deeen]

The article itself is not consistent.
My point is that the geophysics of whether and how much Manila is sinking can be measured, and not by refernce to sea levels.
Then average sea levels are rising at about 3mm a year, and they could then consider the worst rainfall scenarios.
This would then give an accurate basis for the authorities to make plans.

Isle of Wight syndrome - yes 2 highs and 2 lows each day in the Solent and Southampton Water, in layman's terms because the water sloshes round both ends of the Isle of Wight.

[lastlid]

The article itself is not consistent.
My point is that the geophysics of whether and how much Manila is sinking can be measured, and not by refernce to sea levels.
Then average sea levels are rising at about 3mm a year, and they could then consider the worst rainfall scenarios.
This would then give an accurate basis for the authorities to make plans.

Isle of Wight syndrome - yes 2 highs and 2 lows each day in the Solent and Southampton Water, in layman's terms because the water sloshes round both ends of the Isle of Wight.

Yes. I have been a tide watcher for many years as it affects the measured depth of drill pipe in the well at any one time on a floating drilling vessel. Knowing local tides is paramount to the offshore oil industry and I have used the Isle of Wight / Southampton as a wacky example of such when training our new boys and girls....


What reference would you use if you weren't using Mean Sea Level? Lowest Astronomical Tide?

[deeen]

What reference would you use if you weren't using Mean Sea Level? Lowest Astronomical Tide?

The difficulty is what you measure against? E.g. if the mean sea level "rises" 1 metre in Manila Bay, is that because the sea rose 1m, or the land sank 1m?

I believe modern satellite tecnology can answer that question, the rise in sea levels of 3mm p.a. is measured from satelite I believe, so presumably they can also measure if Manila is sinking, and how much?

Historically this was done by comparing data around a land mass I think, so for example if we noticed over 100 years the sea level at Dover appeared to rise and the sea level at John o'Groates (?) appeared to fall, we would say the UK was tilting so the South was sinking. In other words (oversimplification) the sea level was steady but the land moved.

[lastlid]

The difficulty is what you measure against? E.g. if the mean sea level "rises" 1 metre in Manila Bay, is that because the sea rose 1m, or the land sank 1m?

I believe modern satellite tecnology can answer that question, the rise in sea levels of 3mm p.a. is measured from satelite I believe, so presumably they can also measure if Manila is sinking, and how much?

Historically this was done by comparing data around a land mass I think, so for example if we noticed over 100 years the sea level at Dover appeared to rise and the sea level at John o'Groates (?) appeared to fall, we would say the UK was tilting so the South was sinking. In other words (oversimplification) the sea level was steady but the land moved.

Nice to hear your perspective. Thanks. I did wonder about the satellite technology.

It is possible to distinguish between a rise in sea level and a sinking landmass. Not very difficult. You just described a sinking (and rising) landmass. With a rise (or fall) in sea level the changes relative to the landmass are evenly distributed laterally, if you see what I mean. I believe the report suggested both were happening in Manila and district simultaneously? " The land level of Metro Manila where there are 10 million residents, has been sinking while its sea level has been rising at a fast pace, an expert said" Thereby compounding the problem.

[Terpe]

Very interesting thread and some good opinions

I personally don't have any specialist knowledge in sea-level (or land level) measurement and monitoring. But I do have more than a passing interest in what is currently called 'global warming'.

There are a number satellites that are being used to collect measurements on many different aspects, including rate-changes in sea levels, land mass changes and temperature changes.

Just as a personal interest, I do find the data so far collected extremely interesting.
That's not to say I agree with some of the theories of root cause, but it does make for an interesting debate.

Data is data and unless there is a sound argument that it is incorrect in some way then the rate of changes measured certainly indicate something very significant.
Could be a natural cycle or not.
But there's very little argument about the data trends.

If anyone is interested there are plenty of websites to visit.
This is one is just one possible link from my favorite and is added as it relates to global sea-levels and to global surface temperatures

Hope it's worth your visit:-
Global Climate Change (http://climate.nasa.gov)

[lastlid]

Very interesting thread and some good opinions

I personally don't have any specialist knowledge in sea-level (or land level) measurement and monitoring. But I do have more than a passing interest in what is currently called 'global warming'.

There are a number satellites that are being used to collect measurements on many different aspects, including rate-changes in sea levels, land mass changes and temperature changes.

Just as a personal interest, I do find the data so far collected extremely interesting.
That's not to say I agree with some of the theories of root cause, but it does make for an interesting debate.

Data is data and unless there is a sound argument that it is incorrect in some way then the rate of changes measured certainly indicate something very significant.
Could be a natural cycle or not.
But there's very little argument about the data trends.

If anyone is interested there are plenty of websites to visit.
This is one is just one possible link from my favorite and is added as it relates to global sea-levels and to global surface temperatures

Hope it's worth your visit:-
Global Climate Change (http://climate.nasa.gov)

:xxgrinning--00xx3: Yes. The meters at the top of the website seem to tell a story. And yet it is like trying to predict the stock market or exchange rates in advance as they oscillate. We just don't know what will happen next until it has happened. But one thing looks like it is becoming increasingly certain is that if the earth is like we think Mars is, we know what will happen eventually....

[KeithD]

...... if the earth is like we think Mars is, we know what will happen eventually....

...full of US & Russian scrap metal? :Erm:

One thing the 'none believers' in the street don't understand is the number of scientists in support of man made climate change, 97%. And on top of that many of the top scientists who stood against it have now converted, such as Prof Muller.

[lastlid]

...full of US & Russian scrap metal? :Erm:

One thing the 'none believers' in the street don't understand is the number of scientists in support of man made climate change, 97%. And on top of that many of the top scientists who stood against it have now converted, such as Prof Muller.

I am comfortable with the idea of man made climate change. But I also am comfortable with the earth's long history and climate change. Mars appears to have been through its life cycle and if so the geology might just tell us a bit more about the earths future. Time will tell. Ultimately it looks like, overall, in the long term, the earth is cooling.

[deeen]

Manila is sinking, as opposed to sea level rising, at least thats what the article says. There is a difference though it might not seem like that. (Can have a similar effect of course). But Manila is also low laying so if it sinks at the rate quoted then snorkel and flippers will be the order of the day.

For me, if it were true, and their scientists would know as it is perfectly possible to measure, then their ought to be a vast change in direction in the city planning....if there was ever any city planning in the first place. I hope Mr Ayala is careful where he builds next....http://business.inquirer.net/76909/philippines-ayala-to-build-new-business-district


"The entire Metro Manila is sinking by several centimetres per year, estimated as one metre in four years, said Siringan, adding that in northern suburban Malabon, a fishing area compared to Venice, has been sinking by 10 centimetres a year."

Northern suburban Malabon has been sinking at 10 cm a year. However 1 meter in 4 years (3.281 feet to the metre) is some going. :cwm24:
snip...


Nice to hear your perspective. Thanks. I did wonder about the satellite technology.

It is possible to distinguish between a rise in sea level and a sinking landmass. Not very difficult. You just described a sinking (and rising) landmass. With a rise (or fall) in sea level the changes relative to the landmass are evenly distributed laterally, if you see what I mean. I believe the report suggested both were happening in Manila and district simultaneously? " The land level of Metro Manila where there are 10 million residents, has been sinking while its sea level has been rising at a fast pace, an expert said" Thereby compounding the problem.


Yup well trying to avoid the religion of global warming, to avoid derailing the thread.

The "expert" said 4 x 10 = 100, kind of twitched my antennae
Then said sea levels rising at "almost 1cm a year", no, 3mm
Also trying to attach sea levels to a rainfall event
Just seems like an attempt to alarm and confuse

In my opinion, they need to determine the exact movement (sinking) in landmass
Add 30 cm for the sea level rise in 100 years
Allow for at least 10 years worst rainfall (the recent event, being nothing to do with sea levels)
Allow for 10 year worst storm surge (10 year high tide, 10 year low atmospheric pressure, etc)

Then there is a rational basis for making decisions.

Actually I believe a committee tried this in the past, but the results were not followed through 100%.

[lastlid]

Yup well trying to avoid the religion of global warming, to avoid derailing the thread.

The "expert" said 4 x 10 = 100, kind of twitched my antennae
Then said sea levels rising at "almost 1cm a year", no, 3mm
Also trying to attach sea levels to a rainfall event
Just seems like an attempt to alarm and confuse

In my opinion, they need to determine the exact movement (sinking) in landmass
Add 30 cm for the sea level rise in 100 years
Allow for at least 10 years worst rainfall (the recent event, being nothing to do with sea levels)
Allow for 10 year worst storm surge (10 year high tide, 10 year low atmospheric pressure, etc)

Then there is a rational basis for making decisions.

Actually I believe a committee tried this in the past, but the results were not followed through 100%.

Hehe. Funny how you call it a religion. Good analogy. :xxgrinning--00xx3:

[lastlid]

The entire Metro Manila is sinking by several centimetres per year, estimated as one metre in four years, said Dr Fernando Siringan


The sea level surrounding Metro Manila is rising by almost one centimetre per year


The entire Metro Manila is sinking by several centimetres per year, estimated as one metre in four years, said Siringan, adding that in northern suburban Malabon, a fishing area compared to Venice, has been sinking by 10 centimetres a year.

Seems to all add up...:Erm: Allowing for some journalistic "license" and reading between the lines...:D

But don't forget there are potentially 2 mechanisms going on here....rising sea level and sinking landmass, simultaneously. One possibly caused by global warming and the other for geological reasons. It kind off does add up in a way. I don't think it should come as any surprise that this is happening. Good project for a PhD student.

This in the link, seems to have been written up slightly differently. Notice this news report mentions the over extraction of groundwater as a factor. Same hypothesis, different reporting. I tend to think that the basic substance is correct and that different journalists have written it up slightly differently.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/270028/news/metromanila/metro-manila-is-sinking-mdash-geologist

BTW I read recently that Atlantis is in the Philippines :D