Super Typhoon

[BoholoX]

If you can warn any relatives as this is an unusual path for a typhoon. Wife has stocked up on water, baby milk. Batteries and candles.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201226_5day.html

[lastlid]

Done

[lastlid]

Typhoon 'Bopha' stronger than 'Sendong' - PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines – (2nd UPDATE) "Typhoon "Bopha" continues to gain strength as it approaches the country and is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around 8 p.m. Sunday, at which point it will be renamed "Pablo."

"Bopha" is expected to affect Mindanao and Visayas, as well as areas in Southern Tagalog and Metro Manila, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Sunday.

PAGASA weather division chief Robert Sawi said "Bopha" will bring rains in parts of Metro Manila on Friday, when the typhoon is likely to weaken or dissipate.

"Further weakening is expected or possible dissipation by Friday. However, it will bring rains in southern Tagalog region including NCR," he said in a press conference.

"Pablo" is expected to make landfall over Surigao del Norte on Tuesday morning. It was last seen 970 kilometers east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, bearing maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour with gustiness of 220 kph.

Sawi said that floods and landslides are possible in Surigao, Davao, Compostela Valley, Misamis, Bukidnon, Lanao, Zamboanga, Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Negros, Panay and Mindoro.

The typhoon will cross the Visayas islands on Wednesday towards Panay, northern Palawan and Mindoro, and over the South Philippine Sea on Thursday as it gradually weakens, the PAGASA weather division chief added.

'Stronger than Sendong'

Earlier, PAGASA said there is a big possibility that "Bopha" will become a super typhoon when it enters the PAR and may be even stronger than "Sendong," which caused massive destruction in Mindanao in December last year.

"Ang Sendong noong pumasok, 65 kph lang siya, pero ito 165 (kph) na ngayon," said PAGASA weather forecaster Jori Loiz.

Because of this, areas that are expected to be hit by "Bopha" are already preparing for the typhoon.

The Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council in Bicol, for instance, has created a group called "Task Force Pablo." Local officials called for an emergency meeting to prepare for the possible onslaught of the storm, with more than 350,000 residents expected to be evacuated. Hospitals in the province are also on code white.

In Tacloban City, the local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council has been alerted. Residents of Babatngon, Leyte, where a landslide occurred during Typhoon Ofel, and are ready to evacuate.

In Cagayan de Oro, pre-emptive evacuation plans are already in place as there are an estimated 15,000 families who are vulnerable in case of flooding.

Meanwhile, the National Food Authority and the Department of Social Welfare and Development have readied relief goods and supplies for those who may be affected by the storm."

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/12/02/12/typhoon-bopha-stronger-sendong-pagasa

[cheekee]

My girlfriend has just been telling me about this. They are feeling worried. :(

[Terpe]

We lost our Goddaughter in the CDO floods last time.
Our prayers go out to all those who may experience the storms.

[BRIAN WEBSTER]

a very worrying time for many, i was also away from my wife and child last year when this happened and told my self it cant happen again ? how wrong i was, im yet again away from my family in cdo and sat ere in the UK watching and reading and asking my self why i cant be there rite now for them :( lets hope this forcast isnt 100% correct and may god be with them if it does come :cwm25:

[imagine]

my gf lolita will be flying from cagayan on saturday to manila to meet me when i arrive on saturday, hope its passed by thursday :cwm25:

[lastlid]

my gf lolita will be flying from cagayan on saturday to manila to meet me when i arrive on saturday, hope its passed by thursday :cwm25:

Hehe. Last time I flew there, I typhoon dodged on the way into Manila and typhoon dodged on the way out. Neither flight was affected even though many domestic flights were. Needless to say it was peeing it down on both occasions.

When my wife flew here she too typhoon dodged and her flight left on time, remarkably.

[lastlid]

UK 7 am Monday. Looks like it is weakening?

[tiger31]

its not weaking trust me the president has just come on t.v newsflash warning people this typhoon is more powerful than the one that hit in2008 catogary 3 it looks like the eye is going to miss me if it heads south of cebu .The worst thing about these storms is a lot of poor people and local fisherman don,t know its comin until its too late they usually suffer the most .but people here sometimes have a laxey daisy attitude to the whole thing they don,t tend to worry until its already upon them .when i tell my neighbours they just shrug their shoulders with a blank stare at me lol

[BoholoX]

The eye looks like its going to pass just south of Panglao but the wife there says the weather is great at the moment, so its difficult to get across how serious this could be. Was going to suggest evactuating to the parents in Mabini but thats probably more susceptible to landslides. Panglao is low and flat so its the storm surge that is worrying. Thoughts out to all my friends there.

[fred]

Yeah...Its serious alright... The kids are off school and Im preparing to fly my high tech kite tomorrow.. Bought it in Cornwall 6 years ago for 75 Quid.
With any luck ,I`ll get a free trip to Mindanao!!

The weather has been hot and breezy today... Long may it continue.
Dont worry too much Bohol X... I reckon it will loose power before it hits Bohol...More of a tropical storm..
Let you know tomorrow.
If the tower is still there.

[tiger31]

don,t want to be alarmist but this thing has just been upgraded to a cat 5 supertyphoon as of 9 pm local time it has also altered course to the north a little bit taking it right over cebu where i am say a little prayers for us folks it was nice knowing ya all bye lol

[imagine]

don,t want to be alarmist but this thing has just been upgraded to a cat 5 supertyphoon as of 9 pm local time it has also altered course to the north a little bit taking it right over cebu where i am say a little prayers for us folks it was nice knowing ya all bye lol

:bigcry::Wave:bye :bigcry: im praying for you all :icon_sorry::icon_sorry:

[fred]

don,t want to be alarmist but this thing has just been upgraded to a cat 5 supertyphoon as of 9 pm local time it has also altered course to the north a little bit taking it right over cebu where i am say a little prayers for us folks it was nice knowing ya all bye lol


Bye mate!! Nice knowing ya!!
Keith.. According to gloom and doom reports,You may soon need a new Moderator!!:icon_lol:

[BoholoX]

Yeah...Its serious alright... The kids are off school and Im preparing to fly my high tech kite tomorrow.. Bought it in Cornwall 6 years ago for 75 Quid.
With any luck ,I`ll get a free trip to Mindanao!!

The weather has been hot and breezy today... Long may it continue.
Dont worry too much Bohol X... I reckon it will loose power before it hits Bohol...More of a tropical storm..
Let you know tomorrow.
If the tower is still there.

Assuming you mean San Augustin tower - we were going to have some wedding photographs taken by it but it looked unstable on a good day. Might save the mayor some demolition costs. Keep safe and please keep us updated, thanks.

[fred]

BolholX.. I realize its much harder watching and listening to this stuff and waiting for news etc abroad whilst you have loved ones here and away from you etc..
From everything Ive been told ,this thing will be no more than a tropical storm after the thing hits land fall prior to Bohol and beyond.
Ive been through these signal 4 storms in the past and managed to stay quite safe...
Its not my intention to make light of things...

Just let me know via PM if I can help ease your mind etc or even visit your wife should you lose contact during this particular storm if I can..
Try not to worry too much.... We will be fine. Promise!!
Cheers,
Fred.

[BoholoX]

Thanks, greatly appreciated. As you know I was responsible for 3 dive boats so always was looking out for adverse weather so we could move them to safe harbour in either Duarong or Doljo. Maybe we were just lucky but the projected damage never really ever happened. I hope so again this time.

[lastlid]

Set to blow itself out a bit as it crosses Mindanao?

[imagine]

just rain in malaybalay, sounds heavy at times

[Koala]

At 7.00am 4th December here in Dumaguete. Correct its now a catagory 5. Signal #3 super tyhpoon......Just light rain starting to fall and the sky is getting very dark. Pagasa says Dumaguete and the southern tip of Cebu Island the eye will pass over us about 10.00pm this evening with winds 200km per hr and gusting higher (Bloody hell). I have never been in a super typhoon and don't want to be in this one. We are 1km from the ocean and 3km from the city centre but elevated....There is no way I am going to leave the house left unattended......We have cleaned around the house and elevated the furniture and appliances......My better half yesterday bought all necessary products......bottled water, canned food, batteries candles etc.....She also bought 2 bottles of Tanduay......I said what is that for and her reply was...."now that we have lost everything this will help to ease the pain" Bless her soul:anerikke::anerikke::anerikke:

Good luck to anybody else who is in the direct path of Pablo take care and listen to the authorities whether you like it or not.

Koala

[tiger31]

well woke up this morning a bit of a damp squid just light rain at the moment at 2 am uk time maybe the worst is still to come but very calm outside .bolox i think bohol will escape the main part of the storm it seems to be keeping on a westerly route at the moment .my g f has relatives in c.d.o which is a worry coz they are taking a pounding right now.

[BoholoX]

Last email from the wife says its getting worse and there are trees down in Panglao, she's taken in the neighbour as they just have a nipa hut which is taking a battering. Can't get through now so the electric is probably off.....

[fred]

Power has just come back on.. Yesterdays projections of the storm system slowing down have changed (Obviously). The pagasa and japanese line now indicates a direct path through Tag..
Not much wind at present and very little rain..

[BoholoX]

Thx Fred, still can't get through but I suppose its lunchtime there....

[fred]

:icon_lol:.. Yeah..Lunch time,merienda time etc etc!!

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 025
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 04 Dec 2012
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday 04 Dec 2012

The eye of Super Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) has made landfall over Cateel, Davao Oriental around 5 am...and is now moving across the northern part of Davao Oriental.

Important Note: Super Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is almost three times the strength of Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) which crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011. Please take all precautionary measures on this dangerous cyclone. Refer to your national disaster agencies for more details.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 am today, the eye of Super Typhoon Bopha was located over the northern part of Davao Oriental...about 22 km west of Cateel or 56 km south of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur...currently moving west to west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Bukidnon and Misamis Oriental.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 240 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. Bopha remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Super Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving west to west-northwest for the next 24 hours with a slight decrease in its forward speed. After 24 hours, its track will turn to the northwest...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to continue traversing along the Davao Del Norte and Agusan Del Sur Border...and should cross Bukidnon around noon today. Bopha is likely to move across the southern part of Misamis Oriental later this afternoon, passing in between the cities of Iligan and Cagayan De Oro before sunset today. By Tuesday evening, the typhoon should emerge over the coast of Misamis Occidental passing very close to Dipolog City before midnight of Wednesday. On Wednesday morning, it should be moving across the Sulu Sea, crossing Northern Palawan Wednesday evening. By Thursday and Friday, Bopha shall be over the West Philippine Sea.

Bopha will continue to weaken upon crossing the mountains of Central Mindanao today. Further weakening will be anticipated once the typhoon emerges over the Sulu and West Philippine Sea due to the surge of cool northeast monsoon from mainland China.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

[..IMAGE TRUNCATED...CLICK TO VIEW..] (http://www.typhoon2000.ph/ty2000img/aro_blue_sm2.gif)WEDNESDAY MORNING: Over Sulu Sea...
weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon as it turns northwestward...about 285 km east of Puerto Princesa, Palawan [6AM DEC 05: 9.6N 121.3E @ 150kph].
[..IMAGE TRUNCATED...CLICK TO VIEW..] (http://www.typhoon2000.ph/ty2000img/aro_blue_sm2.gif)THURSDAY MORNING: Moving into the West Philippine Sea, just barely a Typhoon...about 146 km west-northwest of El Nido, Northern Palawan [6AM DEC 06: 11.6N 118.4E @ 120kph] .
[..IMAGE TRUNCATED...CLICK TO VIEW..] (http://www.typhoon2000.ph/ty2000img/aro_blue_sm2.gif)FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Tropical Storm while over the West Philippine Sea...moving northwest slowly away from the Philippines...about 359 km west-northwest of Coron, Calamian Group [6AM DEC 07: 12.8N 117.0E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

[fred]

This doesnt make sense.. Weather has gone extremely calm and no more than a light breeze.. Lets hope those mountains in Mindanao are doing the trick.

[jake]

This doesnt make sense.. Weather has gone extremely calm and no more than a light breeze.. Lets hope those mountains in Mindanao are doing the trick.
Sometimes it can go extremely calm before the next part hits. In 2006 typhoon Milenyo came directly over us. There where strong winds and rain then it suddenly went quiet. At 9am we decided to go out and check our lanzones fruits as we thought the worst was over. How wrong we were. Spent the next hour and a half standing in a rice field to get away from the falling trees and branches.

[lastlid]

The BBC's take on it.

"More than 40,000 people have been moved into shelter as a powerful typhoon hits the southern Philippines.

Typhoon Bopha made landfall on Mindanao early on Tuesday, bringing heavy rain and wind gusts of 210 km/h (130mph).

The storm has caused widespread power cuts, travel disruption and flooding in areas at risk of landslides.

There were no immediate reports of casualties. Bopha comes a year after Typhoon Washi killed more than 1,500 people in the southern Philippines.

On Monday, President Benigno Aquino urged people in the typhoon's path to take Bopha seriously.

"It could be the strongest to hit the country this year," he said. "But we can minimize the damage and loss of lives if we help each other."

The eye of the 600-km wide storm was moving west at 26 km/h and was expected to sweep over southern and central provinces before reaching the South China Sea on Thursday, forecasters said."


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20590437

[fred]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/26W/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

[andy222]

I warned the Mrs last night to stay indoors. I just tried to phone her. No connection.:icon_rolleyes:

[fred]

Nearly 5PM... Winds picking up slightly but nothing significant yet.. Heavy rain though.
First rain in 3 weeks so Im quite pleased...
Oh hang on.. Its just stopped.:doh
A super.... what?

[tiger31]

just seen the news surigo del sur is in a state of calamity looks like a big hit there

[Terpe]

Our daughter lives in Davao, but unable to contact with her.
Anyone know first hand about situation there?

[DaveyWallis]

Davao city has escaped the worst of it. Moderate rain and winds at 6.40 am (thanks son :cwm23:) easing off around 8.00 am. Thick grey clouds for the rest of the day and drizzle. No real wind or rain at the moment (5.35 pm).

The cable TV went off for a while this morning but maybe only for an hour. A few plants have been blown down and schools and colleges closed as a precaution.

Those aside, life seems to be carrying on as normal.

As an aside the new SM mall at Lanang is terrific, especially the Sky Gardens. Had a really nice meal there last night and probably going back again later. There must be enough eateries there to dine out at a different restaurant every day for a month and still more to come.

Andy and Grace

[Terpe]

Davao city has escaped the worst of it. ..............

Thanks for the feedback :xxgrinning--00xx3:

That's good to know.

[fred]

By passed Bohol...Drama over.
At worse,a tropical depression,so thats excellent news.

[Arthur Little]

:yikes: ... latest GMA reports from New Bataan suggest 43 lives have already been lost due to severe flooding in Compostella Valley, Mindanao.

According to news sources available, only 34 bodies of the victims have, so far, been recovered.

[Arthur Little]

Needless to say ... our thoughts and heartfelt prayers :pray: are with victims' families.

[cheekee]

Just spoken to my girlfriend in Cebu. Just had some heavy rain earlier and there was a power cut. Nothing drastic at this stage.

Very sad about the loss of life in other areas and my thought go out to the families and loved ones.

[stevewool]

By passed Bohol...Drama over.
At worse,a tropical depression,so thats excellent news.
so still a great place to call home then

[jonnijon]

No power for 18 hours in Tagum, main house ok but small house has gone. :cwm25:

[gladz]

my gf lolita will be flying from cagayan on saturday to manila to meet me when i arrive on saturday, hope its passed by thursday :cwm25:

They have said in the news tonight that it'll leave on friday afternoon.

Have a safe trip Imagine.My Hubby will also arrive on saturday night.:smile:

[songz777]

My Angeline and all the family headed to higher ground at cousin's home, all kept safe and able to keep in phone contact all the time, as she had another battery charged for her phone , wise girl :) she is now back home and no flooding. I cant believe its nearly a year since that last typhoon struck.

[lastlid]

Kate McGeown of the BBC was just saying on the news here that the casualties would have been a lot worse if precautions hadnt been taken in the run-up to the arrival of the typhoon, on this occasion.

"This typhoon was much stronger than Typhoon Washi, which took virtually the same path as Typhoon Bopha this time last year. Washi killed more than 1,300 people.

But this time people were prepared. They'd been warned by phone messages and the media, the government issued appeals and set up a special website, and soldiers even came to take people to safety from at-risk areas.

There were other influential factors too - in Washi rivers overflowed to a far greater extent than they did this time, and Bopha did slow a bit before it hit some vulnerable areas.

There's still been substantial damage to homes, crops and infrastructure. But there's little doubt that by being better prepared, many lives have been saved."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20604423

[Arthur Little]

Kate McGeown of the BBC was just saying on the news here that the casualties would have been a lot worse if precautions hadn't been taken in the run-up to the arrival of the typhoon, on this occasion.

Yes ... :iagree: ... I believe Consular officials in the Phils got in touch with certain UK weather forecasting *boffins as far back as November 24 ... and *they, in turn, had been able to "prophesy" this particular typhoon.

[Doc Alan]

Thank you BoholoX, Fred and ALL contributors to this thread ( lastlid, cheekee, Terpe, BRIAN WEBSTER, imagine, tiger31, koala,jake, andy222, Andy n Grasya, Arthur Little, stevewool, jonnijohn, songz777 and gladz ) :smile:

Having recently enjoyed good weather in Bohol/Panglao, Cebu, and Luzon, it's hard for me to believe how another typhoon could affect this region " out of season ".


Of course there has been coverage on the news, but not enough for those of us with friends / loved ones in the Philippines. This is yet another example proving what a good forum we have ! Thanks again !

[jake]

Just a pity so many people lost there lives and it happens year after year.