Anyone else like a bet?

[SimonH]

Been having a flutter on the horses recently and been doing rather well. Everyone has their own way of choosing which horse to back, but by being strict with myself and not getting too greedy I've steadily built up a nice little sum.
Not got to the point where I can give up work and gamble full time but I have worked out a way of greatly increasing my chances of winning without having to know anything about form etc.
Anyone else have a flutter or have a system they stick to?

[stevewool]

my system is if i cant afford to loose it then dont bet, works well for me:xxgrinning--00xx3:

[Michael Parnham]

Never gambled really, only £1 per week on lottery, used same numbers since it started!:wink:

[stevewool]

Never gambled really, only £1 per week on lottery, used same numbers since it started!:wink:

same numbers since you started, how much have you won Michael so far

[jake]

I use Win2Win racing for my tips. Its the only one for me :biggrin:

[stevewool]

I use Win2Win racing for my tips. Its the only one for me :biggrin:

i wonder is you will get a rep for that:xxgrinning--00xx3:

[SimonH]

What's the tip of the day then :Erm:

[lilbasuk]

i mainly just bet on the football got a skybet account. also me and my mates enter the talksport football predictor for free and create our own mini league. Then we put a £1 in each week of the season and dish it out to the winner and runner up. I won it the season just gone :xxgrinning--00xx3: so that was £168 for me :biggrin: :icon_lol:

[stevewool]

i have only been in a bookies the once and that was 35+ years ago never been in one since

[raynaputi]

I use Win2Win racing for my tips. Its the only one for me :biggrin:

Hahaha..I'm sure the boss would be glad about that, Jake! :icon_lol::xxgrinning--00xx3:

[KeithD]

I use Win2Win racing for my tips. Its the only one for me :biggrin:

You'll need to sleep with me as well if you want Rep :yikes:

[jake]

You'll need to sleep with me as well if you want Rep :yikes:

Well, a mans gotta do what a mans gotta do to get a rep!

[stevewool]

Well, a mans gotta do what a mans gotta do to get a rep!

will this be available on video at a later date

[Michael Parnham]

same numbers since you started, how much have you won Michael so far

Won a few £10 and one £60+ I thought most people would keep the same numbers so that you know they haven't been winners before, when you win the big one you don't do the lottery any more!:xxgrinning--00xx3:

[SimonH]

Well, a mans gotta do what a mans gotta do to get a rep!

I'm open to bribes :biggrin:

[Terpe]

I came up with a betting system for the horses once. It was based on statistical analysis bet doubling.
The statistical analysis could get a winner (but not predict exactly when)
The bet doubling just ensured that when the winner came all loses were recouped.

Nerves of steel and good 'pot' needed.

Not very exciting though as you don't always know the name of the runner :Cuckoo: It's just a number at the 'off'.

[jake]

will this be available on video at a later date

Yep you want to buy a copy?!!!

[SimonH]

So you bet on the favourite if odds were better than evens, and then had to keep doubling your stake until a favourite won :Erm:
If I'm right, then it could prove very expensive at the end of the day.

[Terpe]

So you bet on the favourite if odds were better than evens, and then had to keep doubling your stake until a favourite won :Erm:
If I'm right, then it could prove very expensive at the end of the day.

No, not betting on the favourite. Besides which, it's not always easy to pick the odds as an SP

Bet-doubling recoups in any gamble. Not a good strategy though............unless you can find a way to significantly shorten the odds of finding a winner.

If I had the motivation, time and data to do another statistical analysis I would do it. You need to look at data over a considerable period.

[lilbasuk]

Just checked the odds for andy murray to win today. 1/7, :REGamblMoney01HL1: stick a £1000 on and get £1142 back. Nice little profit made in a few hours. :xxgrinning--00xx3: Anyone got a spare grand lying around? :Erm: il give it back before the end of the day :icon_lol:

[SimonH]

The way I'm doing it is looking a short races, say 6 furlongs or so with not that many entries. Typical example is the first race at York today. The favourite is 11/8 and the second favourite is 15/8, now there's only 7 runners and the 3rd favourite is 9/1 so in my mind it's really only a 2 horse race, so I'll put the same amount of money on each horse. It's not fool proof but I'd say 7 times out of 10 I win.

[SimonH]

Second favourite has just been withdrawn from that race, but you get the idea.

[les_taxi]

You'll need to sleep with me as well if you want Rep :yikes:

Tried it and Keith just tosses you aside in the morning:yikes::biggrin:

[SimonH]

Tried it and Keith just tosses you aside in the morning:yikes::biggrin:

You lucky git, I didn't even get a cup of tea :wink:

[jake]

Used to go to Happy Valley Racecourse in Hong Kong every Wednesday night with the chinese guys i worked with.
Superb night and beer was under a pound, which was cheap by HK standards.
Only problem was even if i won the money seemed to be gone by the morning :Erm:

[Ako Si Jamie]

I devised a system several years ago, one of my better ones so I thought. It consisted of betting on the fifth favourite for every horse race of 17 runners or less. I paper traded so I didn't do it for real and started betting 2% of my bank for each race. My starting bank was £100.

Within three months I had accumulated 18k but from experience I decided not to bet for real and carry on paper trading. Wise decision. Within a few months the bank was depleted, down to under a grand, and at that point I gave up with the system.

[Terpe]

I devised a system several years ago, one of my better ones so I thought. It consisted of betting on the fifth favourite for every horse race of 17 runners or less. I paper traded so I didn't do it for real and started betting 2% of my bank for each race. My starting bank was £100.

Within three months I had accumulated 18k but from experience I decided not to bet for real and carry on paper trading. Wise decision. Within a few months the bank was depleted, down to under a grand, and at that point I gave up with the system.

Similar to the system I devised Jamie.... except yours was way too simple, mine probably way too complex.

Between the two extremes is a workable one that would minimise the risks and optimise profitability.

In the statistical analysis there must be a number of factors such as current form, going, distance, Jockey, number of runners, course preference, current fitness, handicap, competition, prize money, potential SP etc etc
In a traditional gambling scenario probability can easily be calculated. Whether it's tossing a coin or picking five cards out of a standard deck.
The probabilities of a specific outcome of a horse race can’t be calculated precisely. These probabilities however can be positively assessed when subjected to an number of statistical and subjective inputs based on previous and similar occurrences.

All those years ago I worked out my statistics by hand with pencil and paper.
My guess is that with todays computing power, access to the relevent input data and a good statistical model there's compelling evidence that a horse racing betting system involving a sound statistics together with optimised staking could potentially produce large profits with a modest 'starting-pot' fairly fast.

Hmmmm, I've almost convinced myself to work on the model :biggrin:

[Ako Si Jamie]

Similar to the system I devised Jamie.... except yours was way too simple, mine probably way too complex.

Between the two extremes is a workable one that would minimise the risks and optimise profitability.

In the statistical analysis there must be a number of factors such as current form, going, distance, Jockey, number of runners, course preference, current fitness, handicap, competition, prize money, potential SP etc etc
In a traditional gambling scenario probability can easily be calculated. Whether it's tossing a coin or picking five cards out of a standard deck.
The probabilities of a specific outcome of a horse race can’t be calculated precisely. These probabilities however can be positively assessed when subjected to an number of statistical and subjective inputs based on previous and similar occurrences.

All those years ago I worked out my statistics by hand with pencil and paper.
My guess is that with todays computing power, access to the relevent input data and a good statistical model there's compelling evidence that a horse racing betting system involving a sound statistics together with optimised staking could potentially produce large profits with a modest 'starting-pot' fairly fast.

Hmmmm, I've almost convinced myself to work on the model :biggrin:That particular system was straightforward although I have devised more complex ones but nothing compared to yours.

And I don't envy you Peter working out statistics by pen and paper. I bet that was a nightmare. It's tedious work using excel.

[Terpe]

That particular system was straightforward although I have devised more complex ones but nothing compared to yours.

And I don't envy you Peter working out statistics by pen and paper. I bet that was a nightmare. It's tedious work using excel.

There was no Excel in those days Jaimie :olddude:
No easily available computers either :olddude:

I reckon should be much easier these days :icon_lol:

[les_taxi]

My mates theory was to always back the favorite since they logically win more races,if it wins then well done,if not go to next race and put the money on needed to win plus recoup from previous race.
He did it on paper and seemed to do ok but of course the amount you have to lay out shoots up tremendously if you keep loosing:yikes:
You might need to be betting £1000 to win a tenner!

[lordna]

Best way to win at the horses is to become a bookie! My dad always used to say you never see a bookie on a pushbike!

[Ako Si Jamie]

My mates theory was to always back the favorite since they logically win more races,if it wins then well done,if not go to next race and put the money on needed to win plus recoup from previous race.
He did it on paper and seemed to do ok but of course the amount you have to lay out shoots up tremendously if you keep loosing:yikes:
You might need to be betting £1000 to win a tenner!
Dodgy system Les. A few years back a favourite failed to come first for about 30 or 40 consecutive races. I can't remember the exact number.

Another story I heard was when a student put a £2000 bet on a football match in the African Cup of Nations. Team A were winning 4-1 with around 13 minutes or so to go. The student backed Team A to win at ridiculously low odds. If he had won the bet he would have pocketed around a measly £44. The game ended 4-4.

[KeithD]

Best way to win at the horses is to become a bookie! My dad always used to say you never see a bookie on a pushbike!

That's simple these days, just use the betting exchanges, but thousands of profitable systems exist for both backing and laying. The bookies only make 1% ROI, and then have to pay 10% tax out of those profits, so they need to bet £Millions to make anything decent, and a bad meeting like Cheltenham or Royal Ascot can really deplete yearly profits.


Dodgy system Les. A few years back a favourite failed to come first for about 30 or 40 consecutive races. I can't remember the exact number.

Form memory, you needed an 8 figure sum in the end to win £1 :cwm25:

Here's a simple system that has profited for decades, back all horses 1/5 or less. :xxgrinning--00xx3: Longest losing run was 3 in the early 90's.

[gWaPito]

i have only been in a bookies the once and that was 35+ years ago never been in one since
Have you noticed theses shops nowadays tend to attract a certain breed :cwm25: No doubt with family at home with no food in the cupboards.:NoNo:

[gWaPito]

Dodgy system Les. A few years back a favourite failed to come first for about 30 or 40 consecutive races. I can't remember the exact number.

Another story I heard was when a student put a £2000 bet on a football match in the African Cup of Nations. Team A were winning 4-1 with around 13 minutes or so to go. The student backed Team A to win at ridiculously low odds. If he had won the bet he would have pocketed around a measly £44. The game ended 4-4.

That's the trouble with backing in a 2 horse race..the odds are naff...it only improves when you start predicting score and times etc..then it becomes a lottery

[Ako Si Jamie]

Here's a simple system that has profited for decades, back all horses 1/5 or less. :xxgrinning--00xx3: Longest losing run was 3 in the early 90's.Interesting. 1/5 is 1.20 in decimal terms yup? I'll look into that using Timeform sometime. :xxgrinning--00xx3:

[SimonH]

Royal Ascot starts today and all the bookies are trying to out do each other with special offers. The best one for me this week is Ladbrokes who are offering your money back if your horse comes second, suits my method of betting perfectly :xxgrinning--00xx3:

[stevewool]

i have no idea what and how to place a bet and who might have a chance of winning too, buy hay ho, rather have the money in my pocket and just be happy for the other guy who wins