Doc Alan
26th March 2016, 21:57
The question was raised, by Trefor in another thread, " what mother nature may have planned for us next ? ".
Here are some possibilities :-
A. Alzheimer’s disease ( AD ). This causes at least a half of dementias. As the main risk factor is increasing age and life expectancy is increasing worldwide, AD is also increasing in numbers. Effective treatment for AD is an urgent need facing modern medicine. We do understand more about risk factors for AD and quality of care for many patients has improved. Hopefully treatment will become available for halting or reversing established AD, and early diagnosis needs to be improved.
B. Bioterrorism. Hopefully not what nature intended, but many biological agents are found in nature. This form of terrorism involves intentional release of such agents ( such as bacteria and viruses ), perhaps modified by terrorists. Some are more likely than others to be used, depending on availability and ease of dissemination. The diseases they may cause include anthrax, botulism ( and other bacteria / toxins in food ), plague ; and viruses such as smallpox, Ebola, and Marburg.
C. Cancers :- there are over 200 main types, so one " cure " is unlikely. While lifestyle choices, luck, vaccination ( for HPV causing cervical cancer and hepatitis B causing liver cancer ) and early detection ( screening and awareness of symptoms ) play their roles ; it’s likely that better understanding of individual cancer genetics will result in treatment targeted either directly and / or through boosting the immune system.
D. Diseases which are non-communicable. In the UK 9/10 deaths result from such diseases - especially cardiovascular ( complications of high blood pressure, heart attacks and strokes ), diabetes, cancers and mental illnesses. In the Philippines, an increasing proportion are also due to such diseases, around 6/10 now. Obesity and its complications are increasing worldwide. Even if treatments are improving, changes in lifestyle are also vital to curb the toll taken by these illnesses.
E. Ebola - this epidemic, and then Zika, caught the world ( and the World Health Organization ) by surprise. Needed ( in an ideal world ) are better monitoring for emergence ( and re-emergence ) of pathogens ( agents causing diseases ) ; better health systems in poorer countries where epidemics may start ; and vaccines for prevention / drugs for treatment ( which will become available for dengue and malaria ).
F. ‘Flu epidemics or pandemics are a constant threat, because the different strains of ‘flu virus keep changing. Vaccines are a " best guess " by World Health Organization months before any epidemic, so that enough may be prepared for those who are willing to have them for protection. A " universal ‘flu vaccine " targeting the ‘flu virus core ( less likely to mutate ) is likely in the next few years.
G. Genetics - editing the genome must surely become even more important in the future, for nearly every area of science from medicine to agriculture. Gene-editing tools such as " CRISPR " ( Clustered Regularly Interspersed Palindromic Repeats ) are likely to be used in treatment of human diseases - ranging from HIV/AIDS to cancers and inherited genetic abnormalities.
H. Health-related apps - there are said to be around 165,000 such apps running on one or other of the smartphone systems. Most of them are in the category of " wellness " ( exercise and diet - related ): but in the future more may inform / monitor signs, symptoms and treatments ( provided data can be stored securely ).
I. Infectious diseases will continue to be a challenge in the future. Tuberculosis is the leading infectious cause of death worldwide. The Philippines has one of the highest numbers ( hence pre-entry screening for migrants ) ; it’s still a significant problem in the UK ; and antibiotic resistance is a worry, not just for TB. One in four deaths worldwide are still caused by infections - particularly TB, malaria, and HIV. Health of " irregular migrants " / refugees is a major concern.
J. Judgement - or just informed guesswork ? Any new epidemic ( or pandemic ) is likely to result from unknown pathogens which spread easily ( through the air, mosquitoes, or direct contact ) and to which we have little / no immunity. Future infectious diseases may well come from animals ; knowledge of geography, climate ( and climate change ) and culture should help. The " experts " such as World Health Organization, are better prepared now, but have to be alert, and ready to act rapidly.
K - Keeps rising :- the COST of health care, however provided, seems certain to increase. Governments will need to budget for this, while individuals could opt for healthier lifestyle choices.
L - Let me know of any omissions, and in 10 years’ time whether or not I was correct :xxgrinning--00xx3:.
Here are some possibilities :-
A. Alzheimer’s disease ( AD ). This causes at least a half of dementias. As the main risk factor is increasing age and life expectancy is increasing worldwide, AD is also increasing in numbers. Effective treatment for AD is an urgent need facing modern medicine. We do understand more about risk factors for AD and quality of care for many patients has improved. Hopefully treatment will become available for halting or reversing established AD, and early diagnosis needs to be improved.
B. Bioterrorism. Hopefully not what nature intended, but many biological agents are found in nature. This form of terrorism involves intentional release of such agents ( such as bacteria and viruses ), perhaps modified by terrorists. Some are more likely than others to be used, depending on availability and ease of dissemination. The diseases they may cause include anthrax, botulism ( and other bacteria / toxins in food ), plague ; and viruses such as smallpox, Ebola, and Marburg.
C. Cancers :- there are over 200 main types, so one " cure " is unlikely. While lifestyle choices, luck, vaccination ( for HPV causing cervical cancer and hepatitis B causing liver cancer ) and early detection ( screening and awareness of symptoms ) play their roles ; it’s likely that better understanding of individual cancer genetics will result in treatment targeted either directly and / or through boosting the immune system.
D. Diseases which are non-communicable. In the UK 9/10 deaths result from such diseases - especially cardiovascular ( complications of high blood pressure, heart attacks and strokes ), diabetes, cancers and mental illnesses. In the Philippines, an increasing proportion are also due to such diseases, around 6/10 now. Obesity and its complications are increasing worldwide. Even if treatments are improving, changes in lifestyle are also vital to curb the toll taken by these illnesses.
E. Ebola - this epidemic, and then Zika, caught the world ( and the World Health Organization ) by surprise. Needed ( in an ideal world ) are better monitoring for emergence ( and re-emergence ) of pathogens ( agents causing diseases ) ; better health systems in poorer countries where epidemics may start ; and vaccines for prevention / drugs for treatment ( which will become available for dengue and malaria ).
F. ‘Flu epidemics or pandemics are a constant threat, because the different strains of ‘flu virus keep changing. Vaccines are a " best guess " by World Health Organization months before any epidemic, so that enough may be prepared for those who are willing to have them for protection. A " universal ‘flu vaccine " targeting the ‘flu virus core ( less likely to mutate ) is likely in the next few years.
G. Genetics - editing the genome must surely become even more important in the future, for nearly every area of science from medicine to agriculture. Gene-editing tools such as " CRISPR " ( Clustered Regularly Interspersed Palindromic Repeats ) are likely to be used in treatment of human diseases - ranging from HIV/AIDS to cancers and inherited genetic abnormalities.
H. Health-related apps - there are said to be around 165,000 such apps running on one or other of the smartphone systems. Most of them are in the category of " wellness " ( exercise and diet - related ): but in the future more may inform / monitor signs, symptoms and treatments ( provided data can be stored securely ).
I. Infectious diseases will continue to be a challenge in the future. Tuberculosis is the leading infectious cause of death worldwide. The Philippines has one of the highest numbers ( hence pre-entry screening for migrants ) ; it’s still a significant problem in the UK ; and antibiotic resistance is a worry, not just for TB. One in four deaths worldwide are still caused by infections - particularly TB, malaria, and HIV. Health of " irregular migrants " / refugees is a major concern.
J. Judgement - or just informed guesswork ? Any new epidemic ( or pandemic ) is likely to result from unknown pathogens which spread easily ( through the air, mosquitoes, or direct contact ) and to which we have little / no immunity. Future infectious diseases may well come from animals ; knowledge of geography, climate ( and climate change ) and culture should help. The " experts " such as World Health Organization, are better prepared now, but have to be alert, and ready to act rapidly.
K - Keeps rising :- the COST of health care, however provided, seems certain to increase. Governments will need to budget for this, while individuals could opt for healthier lifestyle choices.
L - Let me know of any omissions, and in 10 years’ time whether or not I was correct :xxgrinning--00xx3:.