Philippine economy can withstand possible US recession - government spokesman

[Win2Win]

Philippine economy can withstand possible US recession - government spokesman01.23.08, 4:17 AM ET MANILA (Thomson Financial) - The Philippine government on Wednesday moved to allay fears about a possi...

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[joebloggs]

:omg: a flying lechon :D

sure they can :xxgrinning--00xx3:

[fred]

Watch the PHP/$ closely..
Personally I dont think that the R.P will suffer any where near what the UK is about to go through..
OFW`s will continue to send hard currency and banks here will not suffer as they have never heard of sub prime.

[joebloggs]

i'm already cutting the amount of money i send, and i'm sure i will not be the only one..

sub prime effects banks all around the world, but it hasn't stopped rbs phoning me up the other day asking if i want to extend a loan, or barclay card asking me to transfer a balance from another card fixed at 6.9%, abby are offering more than 1 yr interest free balance transfers..., some are even offering 14 months..

of course the phils will be hit. in the last what 6 months, the php to the £ has gone from around 93 php to the £, to 80 php to the £.. , more than 10 % more expensive now to buy from the phils.. , exports are going to suffer, so will jobs..

[fred]

i'm already cutting the amount of money i send, and i'm sure i will not be the only one..

Yes,but you are English.
Filipinos will continue to send cash even if it breaks their bank accs to their families..Its what they do.
R.P banks have NO exposure to sub prime loans,in fact the opposite is the true.
I can get as much as 20% interest tax free here and borrow cash at over 40% interest per annum.
What exports will the RP lose?? A few rattan chairs?
My eldest just got a job paying PHP20,000+ a month supporting HP customers..His call center branch are interviewing on average 130 people per day..
As the west tighten their belts in anticipation of the coming recession the demand for foreign customer service will grow faster than ever.
Tourism and people from countries like Korea has exploded here..Thousands of the buggers..
We played a game whilst in the mall the other day..
Spot the Filipino.

[joebloggs]

:icon_lol:

well time will tell, as for spot the filipino, that might be a game we will be playing soon here in the uk, spot the filipino with a workpermit :cwm24:, as the new immigration rules start this year... you can only send what money you have left, with everything costing more here, there will only be less to spend back home, english or not, it's the same for everyone :NoNo:


as for foreign customer services, some companies here have started to employ english workers again, because brits are :censored: with trying to understand them...

[fred]

as for foreign customer services, some companies here have started to employ english workers again, because brits are :censored: with trying to understand them... http://filipinaroses.com/images/buttons/quote.gif (http://filipinaroses.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=51451)

But in America the customers cant tell the difference anymore.

[andypaul]

Fred the ofws if they don't have the cash can't send it back and they won't get credit here in the UK if they have no credit history, don't own propety or have already overstrecthed themselves. If the partners 2nd income in a non goverment job disspears then things are tough.

Also Nursing and teaching the wages and chances for promotion will plumment as already i noticed in both schools and hospitals british women and some men are returning to careers they put on hold for families or whatever. As the mortages start to require more attention along with the houshold bills.
With more people competeting for jobs in the fields they will only get goverment inflation figures not realistic increases at all. Promotions and grade rises will be far harder to come across.


Also surely many Phill ofws and phill-western couples will have got loans for houses, condos and surely whether the loan was raised in the work country or back in phil, if they can't afford the payments and upkeep:NoNo:

Sub prime was lending to people who can't afford the repayments in my simple view. If the exchange rate says you can't afford it then it don't matter if the bank was not in the "sub prime" market.

I can think of plenty of products in the IT industry made in phill but if the costs increase roughly 20 percent and may get worse then the companies will find another location.
Already tosh laptop have moved from phill to china, will it suddenly find it cheaper to manufacture the other products made in laguna elsewhere? Thats 6500 jobs and all the support industry wiped out.

[joebloggs]

yes i tend to agree with you andy,

my wife knows a few filipino couples here who are on workpermits, most are female nurses and thier husbands had to find a job working at night, becuase they cannot afford to pay child care of £125+ a week for each child they have :yikes:, and remember if your on a workpermit you cannot claim tax creds. :NoNo:, so your talking about £500+ a month for 1 child for child care..

all the bills have gone up by more than inflation, even the price of food has gone up, electric and gas up by more than 10%-15% !!! council tax up.. i'm sure those on workpermits are feeling the pinch... just as i am, and they will have no choice but to send less money back home.. :cwm24:

yes i remember we use to buy UPS power supplies and they were made in laguna :xxgrinning--00xx3:, i've not seen any for years thou, like everything, its all made in china :cwm23:

[andypaul]

yes i tend to agree with you andy,

my wife knows a few filipino couples here who are on workpermits, most are female nurses and thier husbands had to find a job working at night, becuase they cannot afford to pay child care of £125+ a week for each child they have :yikes:, and remember if your on a workpermit you cannot claim tax creds. :NoNo:, so your talking about £500+ a month for 1 child for child care..

all the bills have gone up by more than inflation, even the price of food has gone up, electric and gas up by more than 10%-15% !!! council tax up.. i'm sure those on workpermits are feeling the pinch... just as i am, and they will have no choice but to send less money back home.. :cwm24:

yes i remember we use to buy UPS power supplies and they were made in laguna :xxgrinning--00xx3:, i've not seen any for years thou, like everything, its all made in china :cwm23:


Ic's and ink carts for lexmark are still made there but im sure they will be movement if the exchange rate is not favourable.

Intel are there and heres a link which shows some info about there role there.
http://www.intel.com/community/philippines/index.htm

Look how many jobs they claim to be tied up with them being there.

With so many Chinese students in almost unbelivable quanties at Top unis here just take a walk around Imperial college and see most of the engineering courses are full of chinese students with the same at brunel uni and many many more back in China with huge amounts of surplus gradutes in engineering and technolgy fields with the same hapening in India.

If costs become to high of they will go or at least transfer work to other locations.

[fred]

Sorry..I forgot to mention the 1 trillion $`s of natural resources they have beneath their feet.
Ships full of nickel,copper and gold are being shipped out to China Japan,Australia etc in direct shipping operations as we speak..
The government here will be looking to seriously ramp up and encourage production in the run up to 2010.
Look..I would be the first to cheer the Pound if it went back to 110..(I have to change pounds in order to live here).
Its just not going to happen in the near future IMV..
Unless there is a half decent coup..
They had better hurry though.
GMA appears to be getting stronger by the day.

[fred]

By DES FERRIOLS
The Philippine Star

Foreign banks expect the peso to surge to as high as 37.20 to the
dollar this year, underpinned by strong foreign exchange inflows from
overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) and investments.

The surge in the peso, however, will be accompanied by a slowdown in
the country's economic growth to 5.9 percent this year, with the
average inflation rate rising to 4.1 percent.

According to HSBC economist Frederic Neumann who heads the bank's
Asian Economics Team, the peso's upward momentum would be sustained
this year.

In the face of surging foreign exchange inflows following drastic cuts
in US interest rates, Neumann said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
(BSP) is likely to tolerate further appreciation of the peso against
the dollar.

Neumann said the appreciation of the peso would be the result of
strong inflows in terms of investments as portfolio and direct
investments seek better prospects ahead of the anticipated slowdown in
the US economy.

"We are quite bullish about foreign investments this year particularly
in the services sector such as business process outsourcing and
tourism development," Neumann said.

According to Neumann, these were sectors that were less sensitive to
the developments in the US economy.

More significantly, however, the spate of monetary policy easing by
the US Federal Reserve Board is expected to release even more
liquidity into the financial market and Neumann said these funds would
be making a beeline into Asia.

"We are looking at a process where foreign exchange would flood into
Asia because of lowering interest rates in the US," Neumann said.

Neumann said the inflow of remittances from OFWs would also be
sustained this year and this would support an even stronger peso.

"That would put the pressure on the peso and we believe that the
central bank would take a very pragmatic view," Neumann said, adding
that the BSP would allow a gradual appreciation throughout the year.

However, Neumann was quick to add that the economy could tolerate such
an appreciation provided all other currencies in the region are also
similarly strengthening.

"In my view, if everybody's currency rises by 15 percent, the peso can
rise by 15 percent in terms of nominal effective exchange rate
(NEER)," he said.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=106778

[baboyako]

One of the reasons why a recession is about to happen (i.e. negative growth) is that growth in raw materials can't keep up with demand - predominantly from china.

This essentially shifts the focus of the economy into playing catchup with demand.

As fred has pointed out, this makes PI as one of the winners from the 'global recession' since it will create jobs in mango production, as well as various metals etc. Obviously this needs a decent government in place, but its not something I'd bet against (i.e. peso is only going to get stronger)

[fred]

Exactly Baboy..
With more and more OFW`s (cheap labour) hitting western and Asian shores the money will continue to flood in..
Couple this with the countries surge in tourism and outsourcing revenue and how it is managing to help feed China`s insatiable appetite for resources, I can totally understand the validity behind the thread title.

[andypaul]

Sorry..I forgot to mention the 1 trillion $`s of natural resources they have beneath their feet.
Ships full of nickel,copper and gold are being shipped out to China Japan,Australia etc in direct shipping operations as we speak..
The government here will be looking to seriously ramp up and encourage production in the run up to 2010.
Look..I would be the first to cheer the Pound if it went back to 110..(I have to change pounds in order to live here).
Its just not going to happen in the near future IMV..
Unless there is a half decent coup..
They had better hurry though.
GMA appears to be getting stronger by the day.


I agree they found an oil field i think recently under phill soil and with all the other natural resources that can be found.

Im sure the goverment will be rich and the companies who hopefully employ plenty of locals to obtain the resources. Hopefully the phill goverment invest in the unis and colleges to ensure enough local workers are trained so they can take the well paid jobs in the industry.

I was more worried about the job situation in general for non skilled workers and the ofws situation which if money dries up along with other remittances the goverment with its new found wealth would have to spend a lot of the money on investment to counter the ofws in the west who i just can't see how they will send the money home finding a spare few hundred pounds a month is going to be very hard for most. The ofws who cant do this, hopefully will find jobs in asia and the middle east.

Did they push though the law changes regarding mineral resources allowing it to be easier for non phill owned corps to 100 percent own companies i remeber reading something about it in one of the broadsheets in phill years back i think they were hoping to bring the time to be approved to 6 months from 3-5 years. I know that in 2005 they were importing more resources than they exported so hopefully the ramp up takes them into the postive.
I presume they must have ramped up nickel production because the price per lb dramtically rose a year or so ago and has now halved to 50 peso per pound which it makes it more profitable for those mining it as they get more profit which seems to mirror the price of nickel on the world markets.

I very much doubt the peso will reach 110 agaisnt the pound, sterling is a dead duck and we will soon be jumping ship to the euro im sure of it here in the Uk.