£:peso has the corner been turned?

[David House]

I admit I am ever an optimist but in the last days the rate has been rising steadily, from a low of around 62 to right now 66.74. It seems that Barclays announcement that they do not now require Government help has increased confidence in the banks, their shares have recovered and the £ is being bought again. Once a trend starts it seems to attain a momentum of it's own as others jump on the band wagon determined not to miss out.
In these days I realise it only takes another piece of bad news for everything to go pear shaped but surely we have had all the bad now and this is the tip of the first green shoots of recovery. With the $ likely to catch the flu quite soon and the peso likely both to be dragged down with it and suffer it's own problems as the impact of the global crisis on the Philippine economy is more fully understood I have some optimism that the rate could now continue to rise. I always was a half full sort of guy!

[fred]

Watching the business channel yesterday..Very clever chap on there hinting that the pound is due a largish rally in coming months so lets hope he`s right eh.

[ginapeterb]

What goes down must go up !



I would say the ££££££££££ has hit rock bottom, it may fall momentarily further, however, as before in currency speculation, it will eventually bounce back, and when it does, it bounces back big time.

I have seen all this before, some people have short memories, I remember it was like this in the 70's the 80's and the 90's nothing ever changes, for a while it looks like a crisis, but then it turns gradually the other way.

I predict at some stage it will be back to normal reasonable pound to peso rates, just give it time.

[KeithD]

Peso touched 55 on Monday.

As I said in another thread, like the 4000 mark on the stock market, the average base for the £/$ is 1.4, and the market tends to adjust to keep it from dropping below those figures for too long.

What we need though is for all the banks to come clean, and wipe the slate clean, and the government is in a position to force them, and I'd have thought that would have been one of the first things they did, although they can only do a guesstimate, it is impossible to get an accurate figure in the present climate.

[scottishbride]

Good day Chaps

I hope you fellas ae right on your prediction with regards to the pound! It was only a few years ago that the pound was 1:100 to the peso. It doesn't help matters when you have American Hedgemen shouting about a rally on the pound, all the negative coverage on the issues in the UK really don't help matters. This economic crisis could well have a bigger impact on the Philippines since one of there biggest trades is OFW's and quite a few of them are returning home jobless, not a good time for anyone at the moment.

[IainBusby]

I admit I am ever an optimist but in the last days the rate has been rising steadily, from a low of around 62 to right now 66.74. It seems that Barclays announcement that they do not now require Government help has increased confidence in the banks, their shares have recovered and the £ is being bought again. Once a trend starts it seems to attain a momentum of it's own as others jump on the band wagon determined not to miss out.
In these days I realise it only takes another piece of bad news for everything to go pear shaped but surely we have had all the bad now and this is the tip of the first green shoots of recovery. With the $ likely to catch the flu quite soon and the peso likely both to be dragged down with it and suffer it's own problems as the impact of the global crisis on the Philippine economy is more fully understood I have some optimism that the rate could now continue to rise. I always was a half full sort of guy!

Have you listened to the news at all today?

UK ECONOMY TO SHRINK BY 3% THIS YEAR.
UK RECESSION WILL BE WORSE THAN ALL OF THE OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES.
UK ECONOMY SET FOR THE BIGGEST RECORDED SLUMP ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD SINCE 1945.

[somebody]

Peso pound ratio like Scotishbride says will improve but not many people intrested in sterling and the UK. Way more talent elsewhere we just have to hope for the next south sea auction so we punch above our weight again, possibly we will find some oill in manchester?

But hey ho what will be will be, as others say we will get along.

[somebody]

I admit I am ever an optimist but in the last days the rate has been rising steadily, from a low of around 62 to right now 66.74. It seems that Barclays announcement that they do not now require Government help has increased confidence in the banks, their shares have recovered and the £ is being bought again. Once a trend starts it seems to attain a momentum of it's own as others jump on the band wagon determined not to miss out.
In these days I realise it only takes another piece of bad news for everything to go pear shaped but surely we have had all the bad now and this is the tip of the first green shoots of recovery. With the $ likely to catch the flu quite soon and the peso likely both to be dragged down with it and suffer it's own problems as the impact of the global crisis on the Philippine economy is more fully understood I have some optimism that the rate could now continue to rise. I always was a half full sort of guy!

Im hoping so to, but nope we have not had all the bad news yet sadly

http://ft.onet.pl/0,20575,why_i_fear...rtykul_ft.html


Was at a large software firm in west london this afternoon, saw they had a branch in phill so brought it up in convo.
They are about to lay off people in manila. Costs to high thoughout the company and percentage wise the phill branch they have to subsdize has gone up the biggest I was told but easy to dump them was the message i got and then re instate if circumstances change. Thankfully we have far better employment laws here.

Also I was told with regard the barclays shares that if they get Goverment help (ie they buy shares) the Arabs who bought a big chunk a few months back have it written in the contract that their shares cant be squeezed so everyone elses get squeezed. Cant remeber all the details but basically those with everyday shares in Barclays if the goverment assit them, then everyone but the arabs shares get squeezed and would be devalued. Dont ask me how that is done way above my thinking.

[fred]

Intel have closed here and a few others .. A bomb went off in a local factory in Cavite and flattened the place today. so perhaps its about time the Peso took its turn to plunge a bit..

[somebody]

Intel have closed here and a few others .. A bomb went off in a local factory in Cavite and flattened the place today. so perhaps its about time the Peso took its turn to plunge a bit..

The phill goverment need a strong currency for some of their projects, but at the same time a weak currency to aid with exports, outsourcing and ofws. While the UK needs a strong one maybe they can arrange a swap

[KeithD]

Biggest Filipino market is exporting people for foreign currency, that income has took a big drop.

[somebody]

Biggest Filipino market is exporting people for foreign currency, that income has took a big drop.

Hence what people have been talking about Phill is further down the whiplash effect than the UK.

Many Ofws will if it goes any lower be unable to remit as required and less money in the phill market. They wont be able to use overdrafts, loans or credit cards as would normally happen to help out.
OFWs and their families will start using up savings either in phill or more likely money will be send abroad possibly to pay mortages, credit card bills etc.

If Banks have there holdings reducded then less will be lent to businesses in phill...

[KeithD]

I've got all my money invested in Iceland....I bought 17,500 frozen turkeys

[walesrob]

I've got all my money invested in Iceland....I bought 17,500 frozen turkeys

Thats Why Mums Go to Iceland

[Paulboy]

I'm not sure the banks themselves even know how much toxic stuff they have, it was packaged up so cunningly. My guess is the pound will stay roughly where it is for a few months, then a surge and fallback again. It will recover, but it's likely to be a few years untill things get better.

[somebody]

I'm not sure the banks themselves even know how much toxic stuff they have, it was packaged up so cunningly. My guess is the pound will stay roughly where it is for a few months, then a surge and fallback again. It will recover, but it's likely to be a few years untill things get better.

6-7 years I heard quoted a few times.

Still a lot of roumour abut barclays as they act coy.

Its not just the toxic debt bought from the US.

We have plenty ourself as the propety and personal credit bubble pops

Figures a tad old but gives you the idea

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._external_debt

[KeithD]

I'm not sure the banks themselves even know how much toxic stuff they have, it was packaged up so cunningly.

That's why the financial markets are still in turmoil, they will not know for years. As the recession bites more, the banks stocks are worth less adding to the debt, more peope default, again increasing the banks liabilities, and this in turns lowers their asset value.

[kermit123]

yep looks bad for me going up lol :( dammmmmmm gaz/maybs lol

[Gavanddal]

I've got all my money invested in Iceland....I bought 17,500 frozen turkeys

You've bought Norfolk?