Pinas population,projected estimate.

[JimOttley]

an extra 90million in 30yrs
i can't see it, unless the phils becomes the new south of france, Tenerife or Benidorm and all us brits move over there

pop of the phils has been growing by about 1million a yr, to get to 184m would need a grow of 3m a yr

Quick excel spreadsheet projection based on 2.04 annual growth rate and assumption of 90 million starting point :(

Year Population Growth Population increase
2009 90.00 2.04% 1.84
2010 91.84 2.04% 1.87
2011 93.71 2.04% 1.91
2012 95.62 2.04% 1.95
2013 97.57 2.04% 1.99
2014 99.56 2.04% 2.03
2015 101.59 2.04% 2.07
2016 103.67 2.04% 2.11
2017 105.78 2.04% 2.16
2018 107.94 2.04% 2.20
2019 110.14 2.04% 2.25
2020 112.39 2.04% 2.29
2021 114.68 2.04% 2.34
2022 117.02 2.04% 2.39
2023 119.41 2.04% 2.44
2024 121.84 2.04% 2.49
2025 124.33 2.04% 2.54
2026 126.86 2.04% 2.59
2027 129.45 2.04% 2.64
2028 132.09 2.04% 2.69
2029 134.79 2.04% 2.75
2030 137.54 2.04% 2.81
2031 140.34 2.04% 2.86
2032 143.21 2.04% 2.92
2033 146.13 2.04% 2.98
2034 149.11 2.04% 3.04
2035 152.15 2.04% 3.10
2036 155.25 2.04% 3.17
2037 158.42 2.04% 3.23
2038 161.65 2.04% 3.30


actually if I had started at 92.2 it would have been 172.43 million in 2040

Jim

[Tawi2]

Family planting

[joebloggs]

Quick excel spreadsheet projection based on 2.04 annual growth rate and assumption of 90 million starting point :(

Year Population Growth Population increase
2009 90.00 2.04% 1.84
2010 91.84 2.04% 1.87
2011 93.71 2.04% 1.91
2012 95.62 2.04% 1.95
2013 97.57 2.04% 1.99
2014 99.56 2.04% 2.03
2015 101.59 2.04% 2.07
2016 103.67 2.04% 2.11
2017 105.78 2.04% 2.16
2018 107.94 2.04% 2.20
2019 110.14 2.04% 2.25
2020 112.39 2.04% 2.29
2021 114.68 2.04% 2.34
2022 117.02 2.04% 2.39
2023 119.41 2.04% 2.44
2024 121.84 2.04% 2.49
2025 124.33 2.04% 2.54
2026 126.86 2.04% 2.59
2027 129.45 2.04% 2.64
2028 132.09 2.04% 2.69
2029 134.79 2.04% 2.75
2030 137.54 2.04% 2.81
2031 140.34 2.04% 2.86
2032 143.21 2.04% 2.92
2033 146.13 2.04% 2.98
2034 149.11 2.04% 3.04
2035 152.15 2.04% 3.10
2036 155.25 2.04% 3.17
2037 158.42 2.04% 3.23
2038 161.65 2.04% 3.30


actually if I had started at 92.2 it would have been 172.43 million in 2040

Jim

http://www.census.gov.ph/data/pressr.../pr0830tx.html

The projected average annual population growth rate for the period 2005 to 2010 was 1.95 percent. This projection was based on the 2000 Census of Population and Housing.

Lowest population growth rate recorded since the 1960s

The 2007 and 2000 census figures translated into an average annual population growth rate of 2.04 percent for the period 2000 to 2007. As shown below, it was the lowest annual population growth rate recorded for the Philippines since the 1960s

still very worrying, where will they live, where will the jobs, housing and food come from ?

[Tawi2]

Manila is bursting fit to pop,squatter camps everywhere,is it 10,000 people live in North cemetary,the living dead?The country isnt geared up to providing shelter and food for the population its got never mind twice the numberas for the census of population,not everyones registered,get out into the boonies or down in sulu and jolo,its not viewed as compulsory.

[JimOttley]

http://www.census.gov.ph/data/pressr.../pr0830tx.html

The projected average annual population growth rate for the period 2005 to 2010 was 1.95 percent. This projection was based on the 2000 Census of Population and Housing.

Lowest population growth rate recorded since the 1960s

The 2007 and 2000 census figures translated into an average annual population growth rate of 2.04 percent for the period 2000 to 2007. As shown below, it was the lowest annual population growth rate recorded for the Philippines since the 1960s

still very worrying, where will they live, where will the jobs, housing and food come from ?

Exactly very worrying :(

At 1.95% it comes out at 167 million in 2040, 1% growth would see it at 125 million.

For many many years people have been predicting a Malthusian Catastrophe at some point, I reckon the Phils will experience one before the population gets that large however that is a horrific thought to contemplate :(

Also they won't be the only country to go through this :(

Jim