Not a hope in hell, its headed for the 40's level over the next few years, maybe worse.Originally Posted by junior02
Boss reckoned if the Tories got in it would get back to 78, maybe it will short term but not long term.
The really bad things have not even started in the UK yet.
Main issues affecting the price will be regional economic strength in Asia and their eventual break from dependence on sales to the west.
Also double dip recessions in the developed economies and the nightmare results of all the "pass the parcel debt ".
UK government debt credit rating will be downgraded sometime in the next year probably and inflation in western economies will eventually take off as a result of all the money printing over the last 12 months.
When the credit rating is downgraded our immediate public expenditure bills will become impossible to pay, because we are borrowing as a country to pay the basics like public services, wages etc. Either the debt auctions will fail or the rates asked for will bankrupt the country.
This isn't just our problem it applies to a huge part of Europe as well and it also applies to the USA.
Peak Oil shock is due which will hurt everyone but particularly western developed economies.
In the last 5 years the Phils has had local inflation running at over 5% (7% maybe) during that time GBP-PHP has gone from 106 to 63 at the lowest I think?
The inflation has made essentials like food and rice much more expensive in peso terms at the same time luxury items have gotten cheaper in real terms, as purchasing power of the peso has improved.
For a westerner supporting a family everything important is at least twice as expensive as it once was. Same for OFW's.
For me personally the costs getting to be nearly the same for the Phils or the UK, ok food is a little bit cheaper but electricity is more expensive, rent is cheaper just now but entertainment is starting to become expensive. For me basically I am stuck because I still can't get my family over here, that is the only thing that would stabilise my costs, if the peso gets much stronger I am doomed.
The problem for the Phils is that the economic prop that is the OFW workforce is being hit extremely hard as their earnings don't go anywhere near as far as they used to back home.
It's still ok for the likes of merchant seamen who have limited scope for spending on themselves but I have Filipino friends in the UK who are seriously thinking they are in the wrong country right now, they are thinking of going home and trying to start a business, how many others are thinking the same and probably thinking about the same kinds of businesses?
If large numbers of OFW's flock back home, all at the same time, it will either depress the Philippine economy or be the boost they need to finally become an Asian Tiger, hard to know which way it will go all depends on how much capital the OFW's have managed to hold back from the families at home and how smart they are (OFW's are generally pretty smart!)
And of course for as long as Asia is dependant on western customers they will be hurt by our problems in the west.
The real problem is that Asia needs much more regional development (it has a chance, more than we do) but like everyone they and we are heading into the abyss in energy terms and you simply cannot run a technological economy without energy.
Let's all hope for the best.
Meanwhile I will be happy if the rate gets back to 78 peso even for a little while.
Jim
