Once upon a time, election predictions were easy. Take the opinion poll, add a point or two for the incumbent party because people are embarrassed to admit they will be voting for it (Especially if that party was the Tories, simple fact, it's just the way it always was), and any party getting consistently over 40%, and definitely if it was 42%, then they were as good as in with a stonking good majority.

Now though, it's "interesting times" as nobody, not the pollsters, not the experts, not Milliband or Cameron - nobody has a scooby doo who might get elected.

One big factor is just who are UKIP taking votes from? If just a tiny percentage of those are from the Tories, then they will deny them a majority. It's as simple as that.

There is a big possibility of all these people voting UKIP because they want out of the EU, and this will split the vote and let in Labour who won't allow a vote - they know what the result would be.