I said to the wife the other day that looking at the debris, the tail fell off, as it landed in one piece, and major tail failure usually results in mid-air breaks ups. A serious flooring accident with it in around 2001 confirmed the possibility. Today they have said the tail is a few miles from the main crash site. It would appear I'm right. My guess is the 2001 damage was a lot more than was expected, and small cracks around the rivets have grown over the years.