The 43 pages of guidelines are intended for people in the UK as a whole, who wish to keep their risks to health from drinking alcohol at a low level. They define " low risk " drinking as giving you less than a 1% chance of dying from an alcohol-related condition. The table is courtesy of Prof David Spiegelhalter, who explains the dip in risk with minimal consumption is due to ischaemic stroke and heart disease reduction :-





( https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...hol_Report.pdf ).




A comprehensive risk analysis comparing alcohol with other influences - chosen and/or unavoidable - on life quality and expectancy would add considerably to the length of the guidelines. There’s more chance, for example, in the Philippines of cirrhosis from hepatitis B ( vaccine preventable ) than alcohol.



Other influences such as • risk factors for certain diseases, • high / low body weight, • current health problems, or • previous problems with alcohol could increase the risk of harm to health. Similarly, for women over 55, any protective effect from death from heart disease for low levels of drinking is likely to be offset if there are other risk factors, e.g. being overweight.


Younger adult drinkers and younger males, in particular, have higher acute risks from drinking.


Middle aged or older drinkers may have accumulated risks from long term drinking, may have more relevant health conditions and in old age may be more liable to falls.


Differences between men and women in the immediate risks of drinking are more relevant to younger than older adults.


Individuals should consider the guidelines in the light of their own individual characteristics – as well as their own attitudes to risk.


They may have already decided NOT to change their drinking habits whether or not they have read the guidelines - but people at least have the right to accurate information and clear advice, if they wish.


Of course if you’re not bothered and don’t read the guidelines you will remain none the wiser ! But for insight into life’s risks, then it’s vital to understand " RISK " - the probability of occurrence of an event. ABSOLUTE risk tells you what your chances are as a percentage. For example, increasing your risk from 1 in 100 to 2 in 100 is an expression of ABSOLUTE risk - in other words, chance. It’s often confused with RELATIVE risk, which depends on what your risk was to start with. So an increased alcohol intake resulting in 1% to 2% ABSOLUTE risk is a 100% RELATIVE risk increase. Similarly, life expectancy HAS increased over the years, but " QALY’S " ( quality adjusted life years ) take account of the fact that those extra years may be neither healthy nor happy.


The risks of ALL serious conditions and illnesses, and screening - from cancers to heart disease to obesity - may be found in other threads. It’s impossible in this Forum thread to compare such risks for the complete range of members, nor would I make value judgements about how you choose to live your lives. But you DO deserve to be well informed if you wish to compare and try to improve your chances of a healthy life .