Covid-19 & vaccine factual information

[Doc Alan]

This is not a medical forum but at least four reliable sources are listed for interested members.

A recent "Lancet" article claims ~27,000 deaths from covid in the Philippines so far. ANY figures for deaths must make clear "with" or "from" covid and ideally be confirmed by postmortem examination ( the "gold standard" - I have performed 10,000 such exams in my working lifetime ).

The Lancet claims that without multiple interventions ( localized lockdowns, restrictions of mobility, adherence to minimum health standards ) the number of cases could have been much higher. Countries such as Vietnam and Singapore have had fewer cases, hospitalizations, and deaths compared to the Philippines, and it is thought enough vaccine coverage to approach herd immunity would be around 60-70% of the population.

Many of us hope for easier foreign travel, either to be with loved ones or for business / pleasure. Default to open borders is the ideal, accepting new variants can't be stopped altogether. All countries should accept vaccines approved by World Health Organization. Rules should be transparent and universal. We have a long way to go, clearly.

We still don't know the origin of covid - it may or may not have leaked from a lab. It may not matter now, but to prevent the next pandemic the world needs to know who is working with which pathogens. Better biosafety should reduce the chances of another pandemic ( and its health / economic consequences ).

I now contribute rarely to this forum, which sadly has only 60 active members worldwide. I'm certainly not prepared to get involved in debating vaccine effectiveness or use of unproved drugs as an alternative.

I've explained before that this virus will not go away. Natural selection means it will be more infectious but less severe in its effects with time, just like the related common cold viruses.

[Doc Alan]

We all have "innate immunity" - which protects against pathogens, but is not "fine-tuned" and doesn't tend to improve with repeated encounters.

The acquired immune response may be active ( from natural disease or vaccination ), or passive ( either across the placenta, or transfusion of blood or blood products such as immunoglobulins ).

Vaccines induce active immunity and provide immune memory by stimulating production of antibodies and cells involved in the immune response.

They may consist of :-

* live attenuated ( weakened ) viruses ( e.g. MMR ) or bacteria ( e.g. BCG ).
* inactivated viruses ( tick-borne encephalitis, "Sinovac" covid-19) or bacteria ( meningococcal ).
* extracts ( of the organism, such as pneumococcal ) or recombinant DNA technology ( hepatitis B ).
* mRNA-lipid nanoparticles ( Pfizer and Moderna covid-19 ).
* viral vector ( recombinant "replication-deficient" adenovirus e.g. Astra-Zeneca covid-19 )

Most covid-19 vaccines are designed to elicit immune responses, ideally "neutralizing antibodies", and probably other "immune-effector" mechanisms.

"Natural infection" with covid-19 - may become very unwell, can develop "long covid", can spread to others.
Vaccination significantly reduces chance of developing covid-19 and how unwell you become, induces a safe and controlled immune response, reduces chance of spreading to others, cannot give you covid-19.

With natural infection, the immune response varies hugely between people, depending on age and general health.
The immune response also varies with vaccination, but most do produce a strong response, and immunity from natural infection is boosted after vaccination.

The length of protection after natural infection varies ; vaccination produces long term protection but boosters seem likely to be needed.

The immune system may not be able to immediately recognise viral variants; vaccines do protect against many variants and can be adapted to boost immunity against new variants.

[fred]

Dr. Ryan Cole #StoptheMandate

I am NOT anti-vaccine. I am pro- good science. My body, my choice. Step back and look at the data and forget the politics. A quick analysis of the situation without fear and media hype. We need to have courage and logic and approach this in a manner the preserves liberty and protects people. It is criminal these mandates for our young people. Leave the kids alone, they survived this 100%. We are seeing a 200% increase in heart damage in our young men after this. This damage is scarring the heart, that's long-term! This is unethical, and a violation of morality.This new 'variant is a 'scarient'. This is turning into what all coronaviruses turn into - a common cold. If you want to be a subject in an experiment and think it's going to be a benefit to you. Your body your choice, be fully informed about what your risks are. We shouldn't be coercing people into a shot where one of the potential side effects is DEATH!Visit us athttps://rumble.com/user/HealthFreedom...

[fred]

Just a reminder that....


MORE VACCINATED PEOPLE DIED FROM THE DELTA VARIANT THAN UNVACCINATED PEOPLE!!!


Link below. Pages 18 and 19

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_20.pdf

[fred]

Wow.. The mind boggles. No wonder people are so damned confused.

[joebloggs]

Just a reminder that....


MORE VACCINATED PEOPLE DIED FROM THE DELTA VARIANT THAN UNVACCINATED PEOPLE!!!

Just a reminder that....

MORE PEOPLE OVER 50 YEARS OLD HAVE BEEN VACCINATED THAN UNVACCINTATED PEOPLE OVER 50!!!

In the UK there are more than 18.5M over 50 year olds.

AT LEAST 90% of over 50years olds in the UK have had at least 1 vaccine shot. (the actual % rate is higher than 90%)

so there are less than 10% of over 50 year olds that have had no vaccine shots. that's 1.85 million people

so 205 out of 1.85M have died unvaccinated
and
454 out of 16.65M have died who had 1 or more vaccine shot.

so if your over 50 years old your chances of dying if your unvaccinated are more than 4 times higher than someone who's had 1 or more vaccine shot.

[Doc Alan]

Just a reminder that....

205 out of 1.85M have died unvaccinated
and
454 out of 16.65M have died who had 1 or more vaccine shot.

so if your over 50 years old your chances of dying if your unvaccinated are more than 4 times higher than someone who's had 1 or more vaccine shot.

As I have explained before, risk is the probability that an event will happen. While the absolute risk of the unvaccinated group is lower than that of the vaccinated group, the relative risk is more than 4 times higher.

"The Lancet" ( and elsewhere ) has commented on "vaccine equity". By August only 12.6 million of the 4.46 billion doses administered globally were in low- and lower-middle-income countries like the Philippines. "No one is safe until everyone is safe". Unmitigated transmission allows viruses to continue replicating, with the chances of more transmissible variants which could escape natural or vaccine-induced immunity. The need for third dose "boosters" ( rather than first and second doses ) should be evidence-based. Antibody titres may decline, but we also need to know if cellular immunity does the same.

A recent study, also in "The Lancet", has shown that vaccination ( compared to no vaccination ) was associated with reduced odds of hospitalisation or having more than five symptoms in the first week of illness following the first or second dose, and long duration ( over 28 days ) symptoms following the second dose. Almost all symptoms were reported less frequently in infected vaccinated than in infected unvaccinated individuals. Some individuals still become infected with covid after vaccination ( in that study, frail older adults and those living in more deprived areas are at increased risk ).

Kelly Clarkson may have sung that what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Most people understand that active immunity through vaccinations saves lives where the risk of infection may be too high to take the chance of natural immunity from disease. Anthrax, TB, cholera, diphtheria, hepatitis A + B, meningitis, HPV, influenza, measles/mumps/rubella, polio, tetanus and rabies vaccines are among those which have good evidence of effectiveness. Clinical trials and real-world data show covid vaccines are improving the course of the covid pandemic.

[Michael Parnham]

Thank you Doc for all the information that you have provided, even though i don't understand all of it what i do understand has answered my questions and I appreciate that. The past eight months i have suffered from throat cancer and I am now going through my recovery procedure, my question would be when the booster covid jab is available would i be considered as vunerable and become inline for an early booster? I had my first jabs January and March.

[Doc Alan]

Thank you Doc for all the information that you have provided ...

Thank you in turn, Michael, and I wish you a full recovery.

I'm sure your GP will be able to advise you if you are considered vulnerable.

There is helpful advice on the NHS website, for example here :- https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...ly-vulnerable/

[Michael Parnham]

Thank you so much Alan, good to hear from you again after such a long absence, take care

[Doc Alan]

I wonder what my late Mum, born on this day during the " Spanish 'flu " pandemic over a century ago, would have made of this pandemic.

After graduating as a doctor during World War II, for a few years she was the youngest and only female GP in Scarborough, Yorkshire.

In her working lifetime, all patient consultations were face-to-face, and daily ( sometimes nightly ) visits were her rewarding routine.

She provided factual information, as I have done here, informed consent never to my knowledge being a problem. It's far more satisfactory, in my opinion, to explain face-to-face. Misunderstandings rarely arise. My Mum's reputation survived intact, I don't intend mine to do otherwise.

R.I.P.

[Michael Parnham]

Very nice read, thank you for that Alan

[fred]

Doc Alan.
There are 1000`s of Doctors that have given their opinions based on facts,many of which seriously conflict one another.
Another Major World Pandemic that once again is being ignored is sickness and death related and due to Obesity.
This VERY real and serious pandemic began when Doctors and Scientists told my parents (wrongly) that the food pyramid foundation must be Carbohydrates and NOT Animal products and fats.
I guess every Dr is an expert on nutrition based on around only 20 hours of study (average) over a 4 year period and yet the opinions all based on so called fact are conflicting. And for good reason!

According to many nutritional specialists, the Pyramid below should be standing on it`s head.
Will main stream Science ever admit just how wrong they were before it`s too late?

[fred]

Instead of contaminating this thread with a different and much more serious and REAL World pandemic,I will continue here..

Dr. Paul Mason - 'Low Carb from a Doctor's perspective'

https://filipinaroses.com/showthread...=carbohydrates

[SimonH]

Another Major World Pandemic that once again is being ignored is sickness and death related and due to Obesity.



Obesity is a pandemic

If you don't stop this nonsense I'll pop over to your house and make you fat by infecting you with my obesity disease

[Michael Parnham]

I always thought obesity was self inflicted, is it?

[fred]

Another Major World Pandemic that once again is being ignored is sickness and death related and due to Obesity.



Obesity is a pandemic

If you don't stop this nonsense I'll pop over to your house and make you fat by infecting you with my obesity disease

Laughing on the floor with multiple icons does not give your post added credibility Simon and it does not change the facts that I have expressed!
If you wish to continue to lose this discussion, please use the link that I provided above and I will continue to kick your fat .... over there!!



Obesity pandemic: causes, consequences, and solutions-but do we have the will?

In the U.S,Women are responsible for more than three-fourths of the more than 400 billion dollars of excess direct health care expenditures due to obesity.
They are less likely to conceive naturally and with fertility treatments, more likely to miscarry, and have more prematurity and other complications with their pregnancies.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28292617/

Obesity Rates: Then And Now 1950`s- Present.



Approximately 10 percent of U.S. adults were classified as having obesity during the 1950s. In 2011 to 2012, however, the CDC reported approximately 35 percent of U.S. adults had obesity; the prevalence of obesity among American adults has more than tripled within the last six decades.


National surveys of childhood obesity weren't recorded before 1963; however, the rate of childhood obesity in the U.S. began to rise in the 1980s. In 1980, 7 percent of children ages 6 to 11 had obesity; in 2012, the rate was nearly 18 percent. In adolescents –12 to 19 years of age– the increase in obesity rates was more striking, climbing from 5 to 21 percent during the same period.

• Approximately 463 million adults (20-79 years) were living with diabetes; by 2045 this will rise to 700 million
• The proportion of people with type 2 diabetes is increasing in most countries
• 79% of adults with diabetes were living in low- and middle-income countries
• 1 in 5 of the people who are above 65 years old have diabetes
• 1 in 2 (232 million) people with diabetes were undiagnosed
• Diabetes caused 4.2 million deaths
• Diabetes caused at least USD 760 billion dollars in health expenditure in 2019 – 10% of total spending on adults
• More than 1.1 million children and adolescents are living with type 1 diabetes
• More than 20 million live births (1 in 6 live births) are affected by diabetes during pregnancy
• 374 million people are at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes

Download the IDF Diabetes Atlas 9th Edition 2019 and other resources at www.diabetesatlas.org.

[fred]

I always thought obesity was self inflicted, is it?

Same goes for you Micheal..Other thread please!
There`s a good Chap!

[Doc Alan]

This VERY real and serious pandemic began when Doctors and Scientists told my parents (wrongly) that the food pyramid foundation must be Carbohydrates and NOT Animal products and fats.

Thank you for enlightening me. 50 years of postgraduate continuing medical education and I'm still learning.

One topic for each thread seems sensible.

I've dealt with every major health issue affecting the Philippines and UK in this section over the years, including obesity ("Fat chance").

[fred]

Thank you for enlightening me. 50 years of postgraduate continuing medical education and I'm still learning.

One topic for each thread seems sensible.

I've dealt with every major health issue affecting the Philippines and UK in this section over the years, including obesity ("Fat chance").

I appreciate your feed back Doc and would like your review of the information video presentation from Dr Paul Mason when/if you have the time.
Cheers!

[Doc Alan]

The obesity and covid-19 pandemics are in fact related. Obesity has a worse clinical outcome in covid infections. The covid pandemic may also have led to worsening of diets and more inactivity.

The covid pandemic will eventually become endemic, while not eradicated, remaining a threat especially to the elderly and infirm. Ultimately more will become immune through infection or vaccination.

Mutations may be detected by genetic sampling, allowing vaccines to be altered, easier than starting from "scratch", but not always possible, for example in the Philippines.

A challenge is to protect those without adequate immunity, at least until the virus mutates to a weaker ( if still infectious ) form.

Not everyone does have an adequate and lasting immune response, either to natural infection or vaccines. Viral "load", antibody levels, and T cell responses all play a part, in addition to age and general health.

Ideally there should be safe, affordable, and globally accessible drugs to treat covid infections when needed.

Two antiviral drugs show promise. Molnupiravir is given orally, so it could be taken at home and reduce the risk of hospitalisation. Remdesivir may also reduce the risk of hospitalisation, but it has to be given intravenously.

Monoclonal antibodies may also be effective, but are very expensive.

How governments - and individuals - respond, and the capacity of local health care, will determine how and when the covid pandemic will end. The same may be said for the obesity pandemic, but that's another thread.

[Doc Alan]

Around 46 million ( 2/3 of the population ) of the UK have now received 2 doses of a covid vaccine.

The UK's early vaccine success has made a rod for its own back. Immunity against infection typically wanes after a few months, which accounts for the increase in cases seen in the UK, and the need for a booster programme, possibly starting before 6 months of the second dose.

Vaccines will be sufficient to help most people. But for those whose immune response has not been strong enough, monoclonal antibodies, and possibly some drugs, appear to cut the chances of hospitalisation.

Around 27 million ( 1/4 of the population ) of the Philippines have also received 2 doses.

Many countries have yet to vaccinate 10% of their population.

Global vaccination is in fact "a mess" and shortages are down to more than just hoarding.

Each vaccine consists of many components, including "niche" products in demand in unprecendented quantities, such as lipid nanoparticles for introducing fragile mRNA molecules to human cells.

Obviously also, every country wants to vaccinate their own people first. Patent issues happened before, when HIV drugs turned AIDS into a manageable condition and countries struggled to make affordable generic versions of drugs still under patent.

Ensuring vaccines are available and / or made where they are needed is the next challenge to beat this pandemic.

BMJ 2021; 375 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2375

[Doc Alan]

Molnupiravir is now authorised in the UK by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Committee.

It may be given to patients most at risk of poor outcomes from covid, such as older adults with other serious illnesses.

It's to be hoped that generic versions of the drug will also be available to countries such as the Philippines.

[Doc Alan]

It's just as well that new antiviral drugs such as Molnupiravir and Paxlovid are showing promise in treatment of people most at risk from serious effects of covid. The firms making them say the prices will vary according to the wealth of the countries buying them.

The covid pandemic continues to disrupt UK NHS care, with fewer elective procedures and outpatient attendances. It's hard to get face-to-face GP appointments. Waiting lists for treatment are high, referrals from screening services are down, and common illnesses such as cancers and cardiovascular disease are not being diagnosed and treated fast enough.

Philippines hospital admissions for "high burden" diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, and lung diseases including TB, have declined by over half, in a study from 2019-2020 ( https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...219-4/fulltext ). The authors worry about a "looming public health crisis".

The pandemic has had a serious impact on treatment of other infections worldwide. These include HIV, malaria and TB (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02469-8 ).

The Philippines is one of the countries still seriously affected by TB. The TB vaccine in use today is essentially the same as the BCG ( Bacillus Calmette-Guerin ) intruduced a century ago ( https://media.nature.com/original/ma...21-02892-x.pdf ). The pandemic has shown vaccines can be produced in one year, not 100 years.